The Republican caucus in California is growing and becoming more diverse, but it is still a long way from power

The Republican caucus in the California Legislature is becoming more diverse as Latino and Asian American candidates appear to have flipped three Democratic-held seats, including unseating a sitting Democratic senator in a presidential election for the first time since 1980.

When new lawmakers are sworn in next week, Democrats will still have a supermajority in the House. But the three flipped seats are raising hopes among Republicans that California’s reputation as a liberal enclave state could be changing. They point out that Latino and black voters helped send Donald Trump to the White House for a second term.

“As Californians grow increasingly frustrated with the failures of Democratic leadership, they are leaning toward Republican solutions,” Senate Republican leader Brian Jones said in a statement. “Not only is the number of Republicans in the Senate increasing, but so is the diversity.”

According to the CalMatters Digital Democracy database, the Republican caucus is on track to have at least 50% non-white members for the first time. According to the unofficial results, 13 of the 27 legislative Republicans are currently nonwhite. The caucus could be more than half non-white, depending on the outcome of two upcoming special elections in heavily Republican districts. Two Asian American Republicans, Sen. Janet Nguyen and Rep. Vince Fong, won election to other offices earlier this month, leaving their seats vacant.

Jones noted in his statement that six of the 10 Senate Republicans are women and three of the women are Latino.

Jones sent his statement Monday, the same day Orange County Democratic Sen. Josh Newman gave up his seat to Republican Steven Choi, a former Korean-American lawmaker. It was the first time since 1980 that Republicans ousted an incumbent Democratic senator in a presidential election.

The other two seats flipped were in the Assembly. In California’s majority-Latino Imperial and Coachella Valleys, Republican Jeff Gonzalez defeated a Democrat to win the 35th District, where Democrats had a 14-point registration advantage and the population is 70% Latino.

And in the state’s closest race, Republican Leticia Castillo had a 600-vote lead Tuesday over Clarissa Cervantes for an Inland Empire seat being vacated by Cervantes’ sister Sabrina Cervantes, a fellow Democrat who won a state Senate seat had become. The Associated Press has not officially called the race, but Castillo declared victory Tuesday night.

If the results hold up, it will be an impressive win for Castillo. Thanks to her sister, Cervantes had a much higher profile than Castillo in her sister’s former district. Cervantes also raised more than $1 million for her campaign, compared to $78,000 for Castillo.

But Democratic leaders say the results are hardly a boost or a referendum against their party, which continues to hold all statewide elected offices and has a supermajority in the Legislature. They note that other than Newman, none of the dozens of other Democratic incumbents up for re-election this year lost.

“In a challenging year for Democrats across the country, our members fought and won some extremely competitive races,” Democratic Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas said in a statement. “It is clear that Democrats have preserved our supermajority and the caucus has retained its historic diversity and strength.”

California Democrats also appear to have flipped three Republican-held congressional seats.

Experts like election analyst Paul Mitchell said it’s also important to remember that the party that loses nationally in a presidential election almost always comes back in midterm elections. If that happens in 2026, Republicans could wipe out the legislative gains they made in that election, he said.

Will Republicans regain power in California?

Still, experts say Democrats would be wise not to dismiss Republican victories as anomalies, and they expect the California Republican Party to continue making gains among nonwhite voters, even if Republicans have a long way to go path ahead to reclaim political power in California.

“It’s not like (the Legislature) is moving to being majority Republican or even close to it,” Mitchell said. “They probably won’t do that again in our lifetime. But if you’re a Latino Republican and you can attract votes from Latino voters to complement a potentially dwindling Republican base…then that’s a powerful combination.”

Part of the change is that Republican-dominated districts are becoming more diverse and reflective of California’s population as a whole. Whites make up just 35% of California’s 39 million residents.

And there are other signs that a shift could be happening.

Christian Grose, a political science professor at the University of Southern California, said polls of nonwhite voters in urban areas of California still show them solidly Democratic. But in rural or suburban areas, he said, there is a shift toward the Republican Party among non-white voters, particularly men and people without college degrees, that could have a noticeable impact on future elections.

“In California, the winning strategy for a Republican in these districts is to run candidates who are ethnically diverse and represent their communities,” he said. “But the Republican coalition in many of these districts like the Central Valley is probably a white majority and some Latino voters.”

Mike Madrid, a longtime Republican consultant with expertise in Latino politics, went a step further. He called the election a “five-alarm fire” for Democrats. He sees the election as a sign that the racial identity politics that defined the previous generation’s political affiliation are fading.

“The idea that race and ethnicity are cornerstones of our political beliefs will become an outdated concept,” Madrid said. “It was final for the past generation and now it will be a relic of the past. … The bigger issue here that the Democratic Party needs to understand is that there is a class problem and that … a multiracial, (multi)ethnic working class is emerging in the country.”

For their part, legislative Republicans say California voters – of all races – made it clear during the election that they were fed up with Democratic policies. They rejected progressive ballot initiatives aimed at raising the minimum wage, allowing cities to block rent increases and banning unpaid prison labor. And they overwhelmingly approved a ballot initiative to impose tougher penalties for crimes, despite Gov. Gavin Newsom and progressive leaders opposing it.

But fresh off his victory in the Imperial and Coachella Valleys, new Republican Assemblyman Gonzalez believes his victory was largely due to the state’s high costs.

He said his district is close enough to the Arizona border that voters could easily see that gas is cheaper on the other side of the state line. Voters are smart enough to realize that Democratic policies make California more expensive, he said.

“California has become unaffordable not only for the Latino but also for the average citizen,” Gonzalez said.

Rep. Kate Sanchez, a Republican from Rancho Santa Margarita, said the election proved that Latinos like her “feel invisible and unheard by the current majority in the state.”

She said it’s no coincidence that Gov. Newsom has been traveling to majority-Latino counties since the election to promote his economic policies.

“I think he sees the writing on the wall and realizes, ‘California, this is a new dawn,'” she said. “This is a new chapter in California history and California politics, and he wants to be in good hands. However, we have all had to deal with the consequences of his administration and extreme policies, and so I don’t think people buy it.”

Sabalow is a reporter for digital democracy CalMatters, A public interest journalism organization dedicated to explaining how the California State Capitol works and why it matters.

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