Roki Sasaki’s free agent favorites

Since Roki Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe met with the media at the Winter Meetings, there has been speculation as to which team might be best suited to sign the sought-after right-hander, who was recently signed by his Japanese team, the Chiba Lotte Marines .

As one manager put it when asked if his team was trying to get a meeting with Sasaki’s group: “Why shouldn’t everyone try?”

With Sasaki reportedly already meeting with teams this week, it seemed like the right time to take a look at the landscape and figure out which teams are best positioned to sign Sasaki. This is expected to occur between the start of the 2025 international commitment period (Jan. 15) and the end of its 45-day release period (Jan. 23).

Is everyone there?
Because Sasaki is bound by international signing period and bonus pool rules, there is a more level playing field than other free agent signings. It was made clear that the bonus Sasaki receives for signing will not be the deciding factor. The most a team could theoretically offer is the slightly more than $7.5 million that eight teams (the A’s, Brewers, Mariners, Marlins, Rays, Reds, Tigers, Twins) have in their 25-team pools . The Giants have the smallest pool at just over $4.1 million after dropping $1 million to sign free-agent shortstop Willy Adames.

With the start of the 2025 signing period less than a month away, a large portion of these bonus funds could already be earmarked for new signings from January 15th. So, freeing up money for Sasaki could require teams to make some late changes to their performance plans.

Adding to the feelings of possible parity are Wolfe’s comments that Sasaki may prefer a small or medium-sized team. That could open the door to all 30 clubs, although there are some executives with lower-revenue teams who believe the pool of real candidates will eventually shrink, primarily to the larger market clubs on the coast.

Reality check: Why shouldn’t some teams be included?
OK, so if realistically not all 30 teams are going to be there, why should some teams have the upper hand?

Market and sales will play a role in how much Sasaki wants to think about who can offer the best expansion across the board. This can’t be discussed now, but it doesn’t take magical powers to understand which teams have the financial resources to offer the best terms a year or two later.

Beyond money, the variables Wolfe mentioned come into play, including the part that a smaller or mid-market segment is a better fit for Sasaki’s personality and his interest in teams that work well with pitchers. The chance of winning has to be part of the equation too, right?

An unknown variable lies within Sasaki himself. Does he want to be “the man” or is he willing or prefers to stand in the shadows of others? This means that the composition of the team lineups could play a role.

What will happen from the industry’s perspective?
MLB Pipeline is currently in the process of surveying the front offices of all 30 teams as part of the annual MLB Pipeline Executive Survey. The questionnaire asked executives who they thought was the favorite to sign Sasaki. It should be noted that many of the responses were received before the Wolfe media session, but two teams received almost all of the votes:

The Giants and Rangers each received one vote. These teams all check some of the possible boxes. The Dodgers have a track record of spending big on elite talent, and they could probably do so to offer Sasaki an extension if his pitching translates to the MLB, as most expect. They also got the best out of the pitchers, and there was the fact that Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto welcomed Sasaki with open arms.

The Padres could also be a good fit for the same reasons, plus they are more in the “mid-range” category. Sasaki has also been reported to be very close to Yu Darvish and is expected to play a role in convincing Sasaki to go to San Diego. It also doesn’t hurt to have Hideo Nomo in the organization as a special assistant.

The Rangers were the team that originally signed Darvish in 2012, and they have also had other success with Japanese pitchers like Koji Uehara. It’s a big market, but not quite as in the spotlight, and that would be a situation where Sasaki would immediately become the headliner of the rotation.

The Giants don’t have the same experience with Japanese players, but signing Sasaki would help them get right back into National League West contention, and president of baseball operations Buster Posey recently spoke about how excited they are about The reinforcements would be happy to bring his talent to the top of the rotation.

Which other teams are serious contenders?
There is another team in the West that could be a very interesting dark horse candidate: the Seattle Mariners. They definitely fit into the smaller market and have a team ready to compete for the American League West crown, with the addition of Sasaki likely making them clear favorites. The Mariners have done impressive work with their arms and would like to see Sasaki join young hurlers Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryce Miller in what is already the deepest rotation in baseball. Perhaps that would intensify talk of a Luis Castillo trade that was already floating around in and around the winter meetings. And Ichiro could be a very good salesman.

Let’s not completely discount teams that don’t live on the West Coast. There are some who think the Cubs are serious players here, and after acquiring Kyle Tucker from the Astros, they obviously believe they can compete in the open NL Central. They also currently have Shota Imanaga in the rotation and Seiya Suzuki in the lineup.

In the AL, the Red Sox are very serious about making a pitch to the Sasaki team. The biggest selling point might be the history of Japanese pitchers who have had success and positive experiences in Boston: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Uehara and Junichi Tazawa. They have an impressive pitching development program and it certainly doesn’t hurt if general manager Craig Breslow can talk to him directly (instead of just passing it off to “the experts”). Breslow also personally scouted Sasaki for one of his starts in Japan in September.

Some see the Yankees and Mets as underdogs because of Wolfe’s comments about smaller markets, but it would be a mistake to discount either New York team. The Mets made a big splash by signing Juan Soto after making the playoffs in 2024, and Kodai Senga’s successful transition from the Japanese professional ranks to the MLB with the club could make their offer more attractive. The Yankees – who also have a winning history with players from Japan (Hideki Matsui, Ichiro Suzuki and Masahiro Tanaka) – can point to a rotation in which Sasaki could join Gerrit Cole and Max Fried.

The Phillies and Blue Jays may seem like they’re on the outside, but remember, when lists were made of which teams were in the running to sign Ohtani in 2017, the Angels never showed up. The Phillies offer a winning environment and a solid pitching staff. They’ve never signed a Japanese player, but they’ve reportedly had some serious success with Yamamoto, offering him more money than the Dodgers. Toronto might be even further away given their lack of postseason success and pitching development, but the Blue Jays are expected to play a strong game, perhaps due to the lack of media exposure north of the border.