New Jersey Governor Race Update: What surveys say four weeks before primary school

The voters in New Jersey are four weeks away from choosing the state election elections on June 10th. Surveys indicate that a Republican candidate may have a guided tour that Democrats are more likely to support.

Newsweek turned to every campaign for a comment.

Why is it important

New Jersey’s governor race in November will be important for both major political parties. For the Republicans, the race will be an early examination of President Donald Trump’s popularity before mid -2026 when they were able to defend themselves in important congress elections.

For Democrats, the race can show whether they will regain important groups of voters that turned to the Republicans in the 2024 elections. Trump made himself up to date with young voters and Hispanic voters and culminated in a right change in the garden state. Vice President Kamala Harris won the state with less than 6 percentage points compared to President Joe Biden’s almost 16-point victory four years earlier.

What to know?

On the democratic side, representative Mikie Sherrill has the leadership in surveys, but it is closely in a race with a large number of undecided voters, as other candidates hope to break through in the last route of the campaign.

The most recent independent survey of the race, which was carried out by Rutgers University, showed that 17 percent of the voters bow towards Sheril. The Mayor of Jersey City, Steven Fulop, took second place with 12 percent, while the former President of the Montclair Mayor and the President of the New Jersey Education Association, Sean Spiller, took 10 percent third.

The mayor of Newark, Ras Baraka, who was arrested last week by immigration and customs authorities (ICE) because he allegedly violated a center of prison, and representative Josh Gotheimer each had 9 percent of those surveyed. The former President of the Senate of New Jersey, Steve Sweeney, had the support of 7 percent, while 32 percent of those surveyed were not sure who they wanted to vote for.

The survey surveyed 966 registered voters from April 1 to April 10 and had an error rate of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

The New Jersey Globe On Tuesday, an internal survey by Baraka reported that he remained 4 points. While 20.7 percent gave that they bend towards Sherrill, 16.5 percent supported Baraka and 12.9 percent to support Fulop. This MDW communication survey surveyed 1,100 inhabitants of New Jersey from May 11th to 13th and had an error edge of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

When he reaches from Newsweek, Gotheimer’s campaign pointed out to an internal survey, which he ran 19 percent to 15 percent after Sanherills. The Global Strategy Group survey surveyed 900 probable voters from April 1 to 33 and had an error rate of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Dan Cassino, professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, told Newsweek That the democratic primary school is a “throw”, but that Sherrill has an advantage in a high-gymnastics scenario.

“The problem for all candidates is to break through the news cycles dominated by Trump,” he said. “Trump’s superpower is and has always been to suck all of the air out of the room, so it is difficult for everyone to get reporting. In this case, we would usually talk about candidates who start doing the money, but the leading candidates on the democratic side are all very well financed, so that I do not see this as a problem here.”

On the Republican side, former state representative Jack Ciattarelli took a lead. Rutgers’ survey showed that he led other Republicans with 42 percent of the votes, with the conservative talk radiom presenter Bill Spadea with a 12 percent second place.

A survey by Emerson College, in which 334 Republicans were interviewed from January 18 to 21, showed that 26 percent of Republicans were 13 percent approved for Spadea. It had an error rate of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points.

Ciattarelli was the party’s governor candidate in 2021 when he lost about 3 points against democratic governor Phil Murphy. Trump advocated Ciattarelli’s campaign on Monday and wrote in a social post of truth that he is “the Republican candidate who is best positioned to stand against the radical left Democrats, and above all ensure a great win in this very important choice of governor.”

Trump’s confirmation “solidifies” Ciattarellis, said Cassino.

“In view of the fact, how much time and effort the candidates have made to prove themselves as the pro-Trump candidates, the confirmation is critical,” he said. “This is an example that Trump recognizes water to run downhill, since Coupatteralli would likely get the nomination anyway, but it is difficult to see what the way to win for one of the other candidates is.”

What people say

The democratic candidate Steve Fulop told Newsweek: “The survey in January made me 4 percent, fifth place. Now we are on the verge of error and after all reports. I think we will win and I feel great about where we are. The nature of a insurgent was very, very voluntarily driven. We have a lot of volunteers. I see every day.”

The democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill’s campaign manager Alex Ball told Newsweek: “New Jersey saw in the debate why Mikie Sherrill continues to lead in every survey: her lifelong commitment to the service, strong record to do great things and her ability to defeat Trump Republicans at every turn. The Republicans are afraid to kick in November because she knows how to win and then deliver for New Jerseyans.”

The democratic candidate Steve Sweeneey’s press spokesman Kerry Lyons told Newsweek: “No candidate in this race understands New Jersey like Steve Sweeney and he introduces plans that tackle the problems that are most important for seniors, family and mid-range families of New Jerseyan, and students and educators. Steve is well positioned to win, and the surveys do not capture what we see. Day- and he does not think of a single voter for granted.”

Ashley Koning, director of the Rutgers survey, in a press release: “All candidates have made some progress since the fall in relation to voters, but they did not necessarily throw in the game at this stage.

What happens next

After the area code on June 10th, voters will take part in the surveys for the general elections on November 4. The political report of the Cook politician is currently classifying the race as a loaning democrat, which means that it is considered “competitive”, but democrats have an “advantage”.

Update 13.05.25, 1:30 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information.