Netanyahu can use the ceasefire in Lebanon to reach a broader agreement

(Bloomberg Opinion) — There are at least two possible outcomes to Lebanon’s fragile ceasefire that began this week. The country’s acting prime minister, Najib Mikati, said that this was the first step in opening “a new page” in the conflict that has broken out in the region since Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. The other is both far less peaceful and more likely. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already stated that he sees the ceasefire as a pause to increase pressure on Hamas in Gaza while increasing its focus on the threat from Iran. The decisive factor in the signing of the contract was a US offer for small-diameter bombs and J-Dam kits worth US$680 million, which convert gravity bombs into guided missiles. These weapons have been at the heart of Israel’s ongoing war with Hamas in Gaza. This would be a major missed opportunity and I suspect that in the long run it would prove disastrous for Israel, not to mention the Palestinians, Lebanese and other populations in the region. From Netanyahu’s perspective, the math is clear enough. First, although negotiated by the outgoing Biden administration, this is a valuable gift to US President-elect Donald Trump, who portrays himself as both an enthusiastic supporter of Israel and the man who will bring an end to wars. The second part of the equation is that, unlike in Gaza, Netanyahu can enforce this ceasefire agreement without his government collapsing and potentially exposing himself to prison sentences due to ongoing fraud cases. Finally, Israel has identified this war as a multi-front battle with Iran. That is largely true. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Syria and Iraq all operate in loose coordination with Iran. They are armed and financed by Tehran. But if that is true, it is also true that eliminating the threats from Hamas and Hezbollah would require a military victory over Iran. Unlike the debacle with Hamas on October 7, when a relatively weak force managed to catch Israeli security forces napping and leave a trail of carnage in kibbutz and a music festival, the operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon was one extraordinary intelligence success. This has led to the beheading of the Shiite militia’s leadership, the disruption of its communications systems and the destruction of much of its large missile arsenal and launchers. The larger point here is that Hezbollah was armed and sponsored by Iran precisely to create a threat to Israel and a deterrent to any attack on the Iranian homeland or its nuclear program. This deterrent has become ineffective for the time being.

Hamas, for its part, is no longer able to pose a significant military threat to Israel, although it will still be able to carry out terrorist attacks. In addition, Netanyahu has ordered precision strikes against Iran twice this year, in an exchange ill-advisedly initiated by Tehran after Israel, from its consulate in Israel, targeted the generals who coordinate what the Islamic Republic calls the “Axis of Resistance.” “ is the name of the Syrian capital Damascus. If reports in Israeli media attributed to unnamed Israeli officials prove accurate, all four S-300 air defense systems Iran received from Russia have now been destroyed. In short, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s strategy of enveloping Israel in a crescent of proxies has significantly reduced the number of militias, while Iran itself has become largely defenseless against airstrikes. This is a real opportunity for Israel; The question is what to do with it. The path Netanyahu appears to favor is to end the war in Lebanon while trying to exploit the weaknesses of Hamas and Iran to the end. There may never be a better chance to bomb Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities. However, given that some of the most important of these are buried under mountains, this would require US involvement and might only delay the program for a few years; It is much harder to destroy technical know-how than the centrifuges used to enrich uranium. President Joe Biden, who also described the ceasefire in Lebanon as an opportunity for broader de-escalation in the region, is not interested. In January it could be Trump. The argument to move on finds support among the Israeli public. Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are all likely to regroup and rearm when the fighting stops. In the case of Khamenei, the argument for acquiring a nuclear deterrent has never been stronger, and in fact there have been open calls for it in the official Iranian media. In five years, the so-called Axis of Resistance could return stronger than ever. However, continuing the war in Gaza, denying the Palestinians any path to a reasonable solution and carrying out further, much larger air strikes that amount to an open declaration of war against Iran – a country of 84 million people – is a plan with no chance of success. On the contrary, it is a recipe for eternal war. The world’s only Jewish state would likely become a pariah not just in the Muslim world but worldwide. As strong as it is today, this is a position Israel can ill afford. This war, unlike the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a war that Trump could end in a day (or shortly before). The US has influence over the main decision-making party, Netanyahu, if the White House is willing to use it. Iran appears to be signaling that it is open to a deal, no doubt reflecting the heavy blows it has suffered. This, too, seems an unlikely path for Trump given his appointments and his position on Israel. But as I’ve written before, that could change, as the world has changed a lot for him since his last term in office. His friends in the Arabian Gulf are no longer as aligned with Israeli interests as they were when he was drafting the Abraham Accords. Trump may have to choose between Netanyahu’s desire to continue fighting and the Gulf leaders’ political need for an end to the war in Gaza the population can accept. To go down in history as the man who ended wars forever, this would be the right place to start. More from the Bloomberg opinion:

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Marc Champion is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Europe, Russia and the Middle East. Previously, he was the Wall Street Journal’s Istanbul bureau chief.

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