Juan Soto forecast scenarios for new deal

Juan Soto is on his way to one of the biggest contracts in baseball history, perhaps even close to the $700 million guaranteed that Shohei Ohtani got from the Dodgers last offseason, if some predictions are to be believed .

Ohtani, as you may recall, is both a hitter and a pitcher. Soto just hits. But hitters that young and that good simply don’t hit the open market often, if at all. In fact, there weren’t many hitters with that statistical resume at age 25.

Here are some of Soto’s key offensive stats during his seven-year career, which included four All-Star selections, five Silver Sluggers, one World Series championship, one batting title and four top-six finishes in his league’s MVP voting included:

936 games
4,088 record appearances
.285/.421/.532 slash
160 OPS+
201 HR
769BB

Having that much big league experience in one season at age 25 is a rarity. At this point, only 16 players had at least 4,000 PAs. When you actually factor in his performance, the list of competitions gets even smaller.

Only nine players have reached the 200-homer mark by the end of their age-25 season. Five of those players posted an OPS+ of 160 or higher: Soto, Mickey Mantle, Mike Trout, Jimmie Foxx and Albert Pujols. How many players have at least 200 home runs and 700 walks by age 25? Just one. Soto.

In other words, direct competition for a hitter of this age and caliber is hard to come by. However, if we relax the criteria a bit, we can find some clues that could help us determine how Soto’s bat will age.

We wanted to find players with a similar statistical profile to Soto who also achieved success at a young age with an emphasis on strength (HR), patience (BB), and overall performance at the plate (OPS+). It’s not an exact science, but it’s not supposed to be. The point here is to look into the past to provide some rough context about what the future might hold for Soto.

To that end, we turned to Baseball-Reference’s Stathead for a list of retired hitters who debuted after integration (1947) and reached each of the following thresholds over the course of their age-25 season:

Given these parameters, there are 18 potential competitions and the stature of the players on this list tells us we are on the right track.

Each of these 18 players continued to perform at their best in their 29th season. All but one had an OPS+ of 143 or higher between ages 26 and 29, and the lone exception still posted an OPS+ of 130. Looking at the mean of the group, here’s how these players performed per season over that span: 664 PA, 37 HR, 155 OPS+, 6.6 WAR

Not surprisingly, there was some decline among these players in their 30s. Overall, however, the group’s performance remained strong between ages 30 and 33. The average performance per season during this period was as follows: 620 PA, 29 HR, 153 OPS+, 5.1 WAR

Between ages 33 and 35, we begin to see a greater decline, not only in performance but also in availability. Only seven of our 18 players ages 33 to 35 averaged at least 550 plate appearances per season. Five averaged fewer than 400 PAs, and one did not play after his age-32 season due to injury. Here you can see how the group performed per season over this period, again looking at the average: 507 PA, 25 HR, 131 OPS+, 3.1 WAR

Of course there is a lot of variety here. Below, we divide these 18 hitters into four general categories based on their performance from ages 26 to 35. Soto’s new contract is expected to be for more than 10 years, but we’re focused on that time frame. If Soto’s next ten years look anything like his first seven, any value he provides beyond his age-35 season would be an added bonus.

The dream scenario: Mays (390 HR, 166 OPS+ ages 26-35), Aaron (375 HR, 162 OPS+), Robinson (301 HR, 163 OPS+), Ramirez (381 HR, 160 OPS+)

The first two names in this group speak for themselves, with Mays and Aaron undoubtedly worthy of a mention in any conversation about the top five players in MLB history thanks to their incredible combination of skill, consistency and longevity.

A contemporary of Mays and Aaron, Robinson remains under the radar of the sport’s legends, but had a remarkable career in his own right. The right-handed slugger was the first player to win an MVP award in both leagues, the second of which he received after winning the AL Triple Crown in 1966 at age 30. This was one of five top-four finishes recorded by Robinson. He was voted the league’s MVP during that period in his age-26, -28, -30, -33 and -35 seasons.

While Mays, Aaron and Robinson all made it into the Hall of Fame on their first ballot, Cooperstown has so far been unable to pass Ramirez due to two positive PED tests late in his career. However, on a statistical level, he is one of the best right-handed hitters of all time. Ramirez recorded at least 33 home runs, 102 RBIs and a .976 OPS in every season from age 26 to 34.

The very good scenario: Mantle (311 HR, 173 OPS+ ages 26-35), McGwire (405 HR, 173 OPS+), Cabrera (290 HR, 158 OPS+), Thomas (314 HR, 156 OPS+), Pujols (359 HR, 155 OPS+ ), Jackson (293 HR, 151 OPS+), Rodriguez (388 HR, 147 OPS+)

Based on the odds stats, Mantle remained one of the most productive hitters in the game as he got older, posting a 165 OPS+ over his final seven seasons. However, by the time he was 30, he missed a lot of playing time due to injury, averaging just 118 games with 24 home runs per season between the ages of 30 and 35 and retired after his season at age 36.

Cabrera, Pujols and A-Rod each followed a similar path, posting standout seasons in their late 20s and early 30s before experiencing a decline. From ages 26 to 32, these three players’ average season was 39 home runs with an OPS+ of 163, and they combined to win seven MVPs during that time. From 33-35? Averaged 24 home runs per year with an OPS+ of 125.

Things seemed to be going the same way for Thomas, who played just 20 games in his age-33 season and hit 28 homers with an OPS+ of 119 the following year, a far cry from his average of 34 homers with an OPS+ of 164 in 26 – 32. But Thomas rebounded in his age-35 season, recording 42 home runs, 105 RBIs and an OPS+ of 146 in 153 games.

Jackson’s 26-32 performance was a level below those four, as he averaged 30 homers per year with a 151 OPS+ during that period, but he also didn’t experience a sharp decline as he approached his mid-30s. In fact, his OPS+ remained consistent at 151 from age 33 to 35.

McGwire is an isolated case in this group as he actually had his best seasons after turns 30. The imposing slugger went deep 245 times (61 HR per year) with an OPS+ of 189 from 32-35, including a then-record 70 dingers in 1998. McGwire posted an outstanding OPS+ of 154 from 26-31 , although he only averaged 27 home runs per season during that time, due to injuries over the years 1993 to 1995 significant time was missing.

The mixed bag scenario: Allen (257 HR, 157 OPS+ ages 26-35), Griffey (347 HR, 142 OPS+), Mathews (287 HR, 137 OPS+)

Although his 156 lifetime OPS+ puts him on par with many of the aforementioned greats, Allen has continued to fall short of the Hall of Famer due to his deficiencies in the counting stats department, recording 1,848 hits and 351 home runs. Allen averaged 32 home runs and 97 RBIs per year with a 164 OPS+ from age 26 to 30, a span that ended with an AL MVP season in 1972. However, he played only 458 games and recorded 80 home runs over the remainder of his career, struggling with frequent injuries during this time. He retired after his election campaign at the age of 35 in 1977. The late slugger will have another opportunity to enter the Hall as part of the 2025 Classic Era ballot.

Griffey was a first-ballot Hall of Famer who finished with 630 home runs, but he is still considered one of baseball’s greatest what-ifs as injuries derail an even more productive career. Griffey hit 40 or more home runs in every season from age 26 to 30, but hit a total of 98 home runs in 445 games from age 31 to 35.

Likewise, Mathews’ best years came before his 30th birthday, and his offensive production declined sharply from 32 to 35 (115 OPS+). The Hall of Fame third baseman reached the 30-homer plateau in nine consecutive years between the ages of 21 and 29, but did so only once after that.

The disappointing scenario: Strawberry (161 HR, 131 OPS+ at age 26-35), Fielder (129 HR, 131 OPS+), Cepeda (187 HR, 129 OPS+), Colavito (245 HR, 127 OPS+)

It’s hard to compare Soto to Strawberry, whose career was derailed by drug problems. After his 30th birthday, Strawberry appeared in just 335 games. The same goes for Soto and Fielder, who retired after his age-32 season due to a neck injury.

Cepeda played until he was 37 and was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee in 1999, but his candidacy depended largely on what he did in his 20s. After his NL MVP Award-winning season at age 29, the Puerto Rico native’s performance plummeted as the knee problems he’d battled throughout his career took their toll. He averaged just 18 home runs per year with an OPS+ of 118 from 30-35.

Colavito had some great seasons early in his career, averaging 35 home runs per year and an OPS+ of 138 from age 24 to 31, a stretch that included three 40 home run seasons. However, the end of the road came quickly for the outfielder, who played only two years (101 OPS+) after his final All-Star season at age 32.

In total: Although no two players are the same, it is a good sign for Soto’s future prospects that we can count 11 of the 18 contests as successes. Even the players who would be considered question marks still had their moments – particularly before they turned 30 – and three won an MVP award during the period in question. It should also be noted that injuries (or other off-field circumstances) were a prevalent theme among players in the latter two groups. If Soto stays healthy, it’s not hard to imagine his next signing going down in history as a free agent success story, no matter how big he ends up being.