How will the Walmart share react to its upcoming income?

(Note: Walmart’s financial year 2025 ended on January 31, 2025)

Walmart (NYSE: WMT) is to publish the result of the financial year in the first quarter on Thursday, May 15, 2025, and analysts forecast income from 58 cents per share to $ 164.47 billion. This would make a decrease in profit by 8% compared to the previous year and a turnover of sales by 2% compared to the figures of the previous year of 63 cents per share and sales of USD 161.51 billion. In the past, the WMT share has increased by 50% by 50% after profit announcements with an average one-day increase of 3.6% and a maximum observed increase of 7%.

Walmarts management recently emphasized The persistent Tariff And The resulting uncertainty Are Create significant challenges In Maintenance benefit Edges And Exactly project Future Profitability. Uprising Cost Are expected To Pressure The Companies below Line, ponder The wider Effects from persistent inflation And renewed economically Volatility To consumer Expenditure. Despite this Headwind, Walmart remains financially robust, with A current market capitalization From $774 Billion. Over The last twelve Months, The Pursue $ $681 billion In Revenue, reached $27 billion In Operation benefit, And posted A net income From $16 Billion.

For event -oriented dealers, historical patterns can offer an advantage, be it by positioning before income or reaction to movements after publication. However, if you look up with less volatility than from individual shares, the high -quality Treffis portfolio offers an alternative after you have exceeded the S&P 500 and have achieved returns of more than 91% since it was founded. See earnings reaction history of all shares.

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Walmart’s historical probability of positive after -education returns

Some observations on One-Day (1d) Nachmachen are returned:

• 20 yield data points have been recorded in the past five years 10 positive And 10 negative One -day (1d) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were achieved in about 50% of cases.
• Remarkably, this percentage increases to 67%if we consider data instead of 5 in the past 3 years.
• Median of the 10 positive returns = 3.6%and median of the 10 negative returns = -2.4%

Additional data for observed 5 days (5d) and 21 days (21d) returns according to the result are summarized together with the statistics in the following table.

Correlation between 1d, 5d and 21d historical returns

A relatively less risky strategy (although not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short -term and medium -term returns according to the income, to find a couple with the highest correlation and to carry out the corresponding trade. For example, if 1D and 5D have the highest correlation, a dealer can position himself “long” for the next 5 days if 1D return is positive after maintenance. Here you will find some correlation data based on the 5-year and 3-year history (new) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D relates to the correlation between the 1D after-return and subsequent 5D returns.

WMT correlation between 1D, 5D and 21D historical returns

Is there a correlation with peer income?

Sometimes the peer performance can influence the stock reaction after the preservation. In fact, price-in could begin before the profits are announced. Here you will find some historical data on the past after the performance of Walmart shares compared to the stock performance of colleagues who have reported profits shortly before Walmart. For a fair comparison, peer shares also represent the return of one-day returns (1d) after the purchase.

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