How Drake Maye can secure a home win on Sunday – Boston Herald

The Patriots still have one game left before the long-awaited bye week.

Can they say goodbye with a high?

Achieving that will require upsetting the Colts, who travel to Foxboro as 2.5-point favorites despite losing four of their last five games. Indianapolis (5-7) recently turned back to embattled second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson, who remains one of the league’s most gifted passers. Richardson’s arm may actually be the strongest in the NFL, and his offense has the Patriots’ defense on high alert this week.

Since taking over the starting role in mid-October, Drake Maye has been making waves in the league in every way possible. But this week, Maye lamented his turnovers (11), which are now higher than his passing touchdowns (10). Which quarterback will win on Sunday?

Things to look out for in Foxboro:

When the Patriots are running

Rhamondre Stevenson hasn’t scored a touchdown in three straight weeks and hasn’t topped 75 rushing yards since Oct. 6.

Stevenson, like all running backs, needs plenty of running lanes; ones that are wider than the Patriots have typically been able to afford this year. And that may not be a guarantee as more offensive line changes take place next Sunday. But Stevenson also has to do his part, especially by blocking tackles and/or evading tacklers.

He has forced just two missed tackles per game over the last month, a big difference from earlier this season when he had 10 and seven missed tackles in individual games. The Colts’ run defense is right at league average according to DVOA and will certainly know that the Pats prefer to run behind right guard Mike Onwenu in key situations.

Can the Pats overcome their recent struggles and get their top rusher back on track?

When the Patriots come around

As always for a team that struggles in pass protection, it starts at the front.

The Pats rank last in advanced pass protection metrics and need to give Drake Maye time to find open receivers downfield. That means former All-Pro defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, who leads the Colts in sack percentage, and edge rusher Kwity Paye, who has a team-high 5.5 sacks, will have to be blocked.

“We have to do a good job up front. Start with (DeForest) Buckner, who has been playing at a high level for a long time,” Pats coach Jerod Mayo said this week. “Go to the second level, you have (Zaire) Franklin there. In the third level (Kenny) Moore (III) and the rest of those guys. They are definitely very good players and have a very good defense.”

As for Maye, he faces a fairly basic Colts defense that plays with a four-man line and majors in zone coverage that could keep him from scrambling. But if he has time, look for Maye to target tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper, as Indianapolis is one of the league’s worst defenses against tight ends, covering short passes DVOA.

When the Colts are running

It’s all about No. 28.

Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is averaging the seventh-most rushing yards per game in the league and has 708 this season, plus five touchdowns. He knocked the Patriots out of contention three years ago with a blowout in another game in December that ultimately impacted the AFC playoff picture. Even though there won’t be as much at stake on Sunday, the Pats know that stopping Taylor will be crucial to their success.

“Taylor, he’s a problem,” Mayo said. “We have to try to go out there and really contain him. One thing I think about him is that he probably doesn’t get the hype he deserves. At the same time he is a very explosive player and a very fast player on the field. It’s really all on his mind.”

Up front, the Patriots had a big game last week in Miami with defensive tackle Davon Godchaux, one of their better run-stopping performances this season. Not only do the Pats need to win at the line of scrimmage, but they also need to finish at tackling. This has been a recurring problem for linebackers Jahlani Tavai and Christian Elliss, who both have a missed tackle rate above 10%, according to Pro Football Focus.