Can the USA be an arms supplier to Central Asia? – The Diplomat

The defense news outlet Breaking Defense published an analysis on November 22 with the provocative title: “After watching Central Asian countries turn away from Russia to buy weapons in Ukraine: US officialsThe article quotes an unnamed US State Department official as saying that “Washington has seen ‘very strong’ interest in US-made defense products, platforms and services” from Central Asian countries.

earlier this month Donald Luassistant secretary of the Office of South and Central Asian Affairs said during a panel The Center for New American Security says that as Central Asian governments turn away from Russia for military technology, “they’re not just looking at China, they’re looking at Iran, they’re looking at Europe, they’re looking at Iran.” United states.”

The unnamed State Department official quoted in the Breaking Defense article pointed to potential obstacles, such as U.S. reluctance to sell high-tech defense equipment to governments known to have close ties to Moscow and Beijing .

“However, the Central Asians are again very interested in our special products; “It really just comes down to playing a good game,” the official said.

Another challenge is the lower defense budgets of the Central Asian states. So instead of selling high-tech equipment like F-35 fighter jets, the U.S. official saw “very precise requests,” the article says, such as “the kind of smaller capabilities that tend to fill niches, that they have”.

Breaking Defense cites examples such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), radars, small arms and munitions as potential systems and equipment that Central Asian militaries want. There is also interest in boutique equipment used by U.S. special forces, said a second unnamed state official interviewed by Breaking Defense.

Arms sales to Central Asian forces are an obscure topic. As Breaking Defense explains, US military sales to countries in the region are limited and there is a lack of information. In 2020 the Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced the approval of a possible sale of three King Air B300ER Scorpion aircraft equipped with intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance mission systems (ISR) to Kazakhstan for a price of $128.1 million. Uzbekistan is said to have taken over in 2022 Puma 3 AE unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from the US manufacturer AeroVironment.

There are several factors that determine whether the United States can become a supplier to Central Asian forces. Due to space limitations, we will focus on Kazakhstan as more information becomes available.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has stressed the importance of acquiring new technologies for the armed forces. At a Conference on May 5, 2023 Regarding the development of the armed forces, the President emphasized the need to “increase the share of high-precision weapons, drones, robotic systems, the fleet of military transport aircraft and combat vehicles for greater mobility.”

The first point to consider is budgets. Accordingly Kazakh mediaAccording to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) notes that the country’s defense budget in 2023 was only 0.5 percent of GDP. SIPRI has no information on Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan’s historic rival for regional leadership. However, Media reports say that Kyrgyzstan spent 1.5 percent of its GDP on defense last year – although SIPRI puts the amount at 3.6 percent. (The 2021-2022 border conflicts are a likely factor explaining why Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are investing proportionately more in defense than Astana, whose GDP is much larger.)

In other words, US companies cannot expect the same profit compared to European or Asian customers. To justify the purchase of the more advanced and expensive U.S. technology, concessions or trade-offs are also required in the sale.

A second problem is the domestic defense industry. Kazakhstan has a more robust defense industry than its fellow Central Asian countries. While Astana wants to source equipment from abroad, it also wants to produce domestically. For example, Kazakhstan Paramount Engineering (KPE) is a joint venture between Paramount Engineering of South Africa and Kazpetromash of Kazakhstan. The companies make them 4×4 Arlan armored personnel carrier (APC). Early 2022KPE announced the delivery of a new batch of Arlan for the Kazakh military. The two companies also developed this 6×6 Barys Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV).

At the Serbian defense fair Belgrade Partner 2023 Taharqa Technologiesa Kazakh start-up, presented the prototype of its NMD multirotor drone. “Regarding the NMD system, the requirement of the Kazakh Ministry of Defense was to have a weapon capable of targeting enemy infantry with high-explosive fragmentation warheads,” and according to Taharqa Technologies, the NMD “can penetrate armor up to 10 mm,” a explained Defense News Article.

In other words, Kazakhstan may not only want to buy technology, but also acquire the know-how to produce some systems domestically.

Thirdly, there is the question of supplier diversification as inter-regional governments and defense companies recognize the gap in Central Asia and want to supply their systems and platforms. South Africa was given as an example, but there are others. Kazakhstan Engineering signed a letter of intent with Turkiyes Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) for production in mid-May 2023 Anka UAV from TAI in the Central Asian country. Turkish companies are also reportedly interested in modernizing the Kazakh Navy’s fleet.

Furthermore, China is obviously a potential supplier and, according to SIPRI, Kazakhstan has procured Wing Loong-1 UAVs and Blue Arrow-1 anti-tank missiles. Budgets, equipment costs and comfort also play a role here. Neighboring Uzbekistan has also bought Turkish and Chinese droneswhich shows a similar willingness to diversify suppliers.

However, Astana has turned to the West for some systems as the country has acquired A400M transport aircraft airbus and L-39 jet trainer from Czech aircraft manufacturer Aero Vodochody.

Finally, there is the question of Russia. It is questionable how Moscow would react to Astana –a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization – if the Kazakh Defense Ministry were to acquire US military technology. At least bilateral relations could deteriorate temporarily and there could be trade policy implications. For a UAV fleet, it may not be worth upsetting the already complex regional status quo.

Another variable is Ukraine. The Kazakh military continues to use military equipment that is predominantly of Soviet or Russian origin. However, the Russian defense industry is heavily focused on producing hardware for the front lines in Ukraine and the Black Sea. Astana has not disclosed whether the war affected the transfer of military equipment with Moscow. Given the extent of Soviet-Russian military technology used by the Kazakh Armed Forces, the situation could become dire if the Kazakh defense industrial sector cannot keep these weapons and platforms operational. The future of war and the Russian defense industry will influence whether users of Russian-Soviet military technology in Central Asia and beyond seek new equipment elsewhere.

Finally, there is the perennial question of who Washington should sell equipment to. Kazakhstan is eager to show the US that it is a reliable partner, but Astana still has a lot to do in terms of good governance and government transparency, as shown by popular discontent against the authorities, provoking Bloody January 2022 and its aftermath have. Meanwhile, authoritarian Turkmenistan, with its terrible record on human rights and democracy, is a potential client that Washington and U.S. defense contractors want to steer clear of.

Breaking Defense’s article does an excellent job of shedding light on arms sales in the Central Asian defense market. There is certainly room for the US to become a supplier of some equipment as regional militaries look to modernize their inventory and even increase the size of their forces (Astana is creating one, for example military reserve service). However, there are several variables that suggest that the U.S. defense industry will not become a significant player in the region any time soon.

For more information, the Oxus Society publishes a comprehensive analysis of the Central Asian armed forces. The Tajikistan chapter was published in October (the author of this comment contributes to the project).